Judgement / Triage / Prioritization

  1. Put a hard constraint on the time you’ll take to make a decision.
    • If you need more information before you decide, realize that decisiveness itself is extremely valuable.
    • Decisiveness as more important than making a better decision.
  2. Collect the candidate plans in one place.
  3. Rank the plans / ideas by likelihood of success / efficacy in accomplishing the goal.
    • Consider how many times you’ve executed successfully on a plan like that in the past.
    • Premortem - Imagine that your plan fails. How will it fail?
  4. Rank the plans / ideas by cost of execution.
    • Consider how long they’ll take you to reach your goal.
  5. Rank the plans / ideas by simplicity. *. Be able to see the causal factors that lead to the success of your plan. *. Ease of tracking the success of the plan. *. This is fundamentally about clarity, and how confident you can be about your judgement of your plan.
  6. Rank the plans by externalities. What positive benifits will they have that aren’t directly related to the goal, like learning, new friends and connections, or reputation? What negative externalities are there?